MTF Analysis: ₹1.47 Lakh Crore of Borrowed Positions Sitting on a ₹15-16k Cr Paper Loss

Retail India has ₹1.47 lakh crore of stocks bought on borrowed money. As of 22 Oct, those positions are sitting on a ₹15-16k Cr paper loss. This analysis goes through all stocks in NSE’s margin-trading (MTF) data to see what’s inside: how the book was built, where the losses sit, and whether the unwind has started.

How MTF Works

Under the Margin Trading Facility, you put in ₹25k, the broker lends ₹75k, and you own ₹1 lakh of stock. That leverage magnifies gains and losses alike:

• Stock −10% → you lose 40% of your money
• Stock −25% → your money is gone

On top of that, interest runs at 9–20% a year the whole time.

The Build-Up in the MTF Book

The combined MTF book (NSE + BSE) grew sharply this year:

That is +45% in 6 months. The book hit its record right as the market was rolling over.

The Red Flag: Prices Fell, Borrowing Didn’t

Here is how the indices and the MTF book moved since 1 Sep:

Prices fell, but the borrowing didn’t. On 15 of 34 sessions, the book grew while Nifty fell. That’s traders averaging down with borrowed money.

The Scoreboard: How Many MTF Stocks Are in Loss?

Of ~2100 stocks with clean data:

• 🔴 1,900 are below the average buy price
• 🟢 Only 200-250 are in profit

Net paper loss: −₹15-16k Cr

How Deep Is the Hole?

At those levels, most leveraged holders have already had margin calls.

Biggest Paper Losses by Stock

The stocks carrying the biggest MTF paper losses are:

1. Jio Financial
2. HDFC Bank
3. Reliance
4. Tata Motors PV
5. BSE
6. Mazagon Dock
7. Suzlon
8. RVNL

The PSU Hangover

74 PSU stocks carry ₹21-22k Cr of leveraged positions. The 2024 favourites are now the most-borrowed-against losers.

Penny Stocks + Leverage

354 stocks priced under ₹50 hold ~₹8k Cr of MTF. A cheap share price does not mean cheap risk.

Is the MTF Unwind Starting?

One way to track this is the ratio of new positions opened per ₹1 closed:

On 22 Oct, the leveraged book fell 1.1%, while Nifty fell only 0.5%. Nifty fell further on 23 Oct, but the latest available data is for 22 Oct.

What to Watch Next 👀

• The book falling toward ₹1.25–1.35 lakh Cr = excess leverage cleared
• New positions exceeding closed ones while Nifty rises = fresh buying, not trapped buying

Until then, small & midcaps carry a ₹20-25k Cr overhang of stressed positions.