Trump Says Iran War Will End Soon With Strait of Hormuz 'Sort of Open'

Market snapshot: US President Donald Trump stated that the conflict with Iran is expected to end 'pretty soon' and suggested that Iran's operational capacity is nearing its limit. He noted that the Strait of Hormuz is 'sort of open right now' and confirmed his active involvement in the negotiations to restore shipping traffic through the critical chokepoint.

Data Snapshot

• Brent crude oil prices declined by 1.2% to settle at $78.43 per barrel amid optimism surrounding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Strait of Hormuz acts as the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, carrying approximately 20% of global petroleum and crude oil consumption.

What's Changed

• Brent crude prices have corrected from early May peaks of around $126 per barrel down to $78.43 per barrel, representing a decline of ≈37.75% (derived: $78.43 vs $126) as geopolitical risk premiums soften.
• The US administration pivoted away from its July proposal of a 20% shipping levy in favor of seeking direct Gulf investment pledges to cover regional security costs.

Key Takeaways

• Diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman has entered its final stages to establish a 60-day temporary shipping corridor.
• The proposed framework would route incoming Persian Gulf traffic through Iranian-controlled channels and outgoing traffic through Oman-controlled channels.
• The US military blockade on Iranian ports remains active, with the ultimate reopening hinging on the lifting of US naval restrictions.

SAHI Perspective

The potential resolution of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is a major relief for global energy markets, particularly for net oil-importing nations like India. While the proposed dual-controlled route offers a near-term solution, allowing Iran greater maritime control represents a significant strategic concession. Global markets should expect volatile oil prices until a formal, long-term treaty is signed in place of temporary 60-day arrangements.

Market Implications

A successful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will alleviate supply-side inflation globally. For India, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and LNG imports, a drop in Brent crude toward the $75–$80 range will reduce under-recoveries for state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) and ease domestic fiscal pressure. Conversely, any sudden breakdown in the delicate Oman-mediated talks could rapidly reinstate a geopolitical risk premium, pushing Brent crude back toward the $100 per barrel mark.

Trading Signals

Market Bias: Neutral

While progress on the Strait of Hormuz negotiations has eased crude prices to $78.43, a final agreement remains unsigned, and unresolved terms around port blockades warrant caution.

Overweight: Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), Paint & Specialty Chemicals, Logistics & Shipping

Underweight: Upstream Oil Exploration

Trigger Factors:

• Formal signing of the Iran-Oman shipping agreement.
• Official announcements regarding the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
• Movement of Brent crude below the key support level of $75 per barrel.

Time Horizon: Near-term (0-3 months)

Industry Context

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for global trade. Following the outbreak of conflict on February 28, 2026, the complete closure of the waterway disrupted approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply. India previously had to coordinate safe passage for 22 energy-carrying vessels in March 2026 to secure its domestic LNG and crude requirements. A normalized flow through the strait is crucial to stabilizing shipping freight rates and insurance premiums, which spiked during the hostilities.

Key Risks to Watch

• Negotiation deadlock over Iran's demands for complete lifting of US naval and port blockades.
• Internal political opposition in the US regarding concessions that grant Iran shipping control.
• Potential escalation by regional proxy groups, such as Yemen's Houthis, disrupting the temporary maritime corridor.

Recent Developments

Iran and Oman are in the final stages of drafting a 60-day temporary shipping agreement where incoming ships use an Iranian route and outbound ships use an Omani route. This follows the reinstatement of a US blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July 2026. Prior to this, a fragile June ceasefire broke down within two weeks, leading to renewed military hostilities.

Closing Insight

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most critical barometer for global energy stability. Trump's comments reflect a growing urgency to resolve the conflict, but the transition from active military blockades to secure commercial transit will be non-linear. Investors should focus on actual shipping volumes rather than rhetorical progress.

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