Trump Says He and Zelenskyy Are Working on Solution to End War

Market snapshot: US President Donald Trump has stated that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are actively negotiating a solution to end the Russia-Ukraine war, claiming that Ukraine 'will make a deal.' These comments come amid highly active diplomatic sessions on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, where Trump noted he frequently discusses the conflict's resolution, including with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Data Snapshot

• Under the newly enacted Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, the US President is authorized to apply tariffs of up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas, potentially targeting India and China.
• Trump highlighted the toll of the conflict by stating that approximately 25,000 people, mostly soldiers, are being killed each month in the war.
• Trump previously called Zelenskyy to persuade Ukraine to stop drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries, expressing concern that the loss of Russian diesel output would trigger global supply shortages.

Key Takeaways

• Trump and Zelenskyy are actively engaged in negotiations on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York to find a peace framework.
• Trump has emphasized maintaining communication with Putin, asserting that a peace agreement is a main priority.
• The newly signed Lindsey Graham Act empowers the US to levy up to 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy resources.
• Ukraine has shown willingness to back an energy infrastructure ceasefire if Russia shows genuine intent to de-escalate.

SAHI Perspective

Trump's strategy blends aggressive bilateral negotiations with severe economic coercion. By passing the Lindsey Graham Act to threaten major importers of Russian oil with 100% tariffs, Washington is squeezing Moscow's war budget. Simultaneously, pressuring Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian refineries reflects the US need to stave off global energy inflation. For India, this coercive geopolitics means navigating potential trade penalties while securing national energy demands.

Market Implications

A successful negotiation or a confirmed energy infrastructure ceasefire would substantially ease global oil and diesel prices. However, the threat of 100% US tariffs under the newly signed act represents a significant structural risk for Indian export sectors, particularly textiles and engineering, which are highly reliant on the US market and vulnerable to any sanctions-related disruptions.

Trading Signals

Market Bias: Neutral

While peace negotiations are highly positive for global market sentiment, the downside risk of 100% tariffs under the Lindsey Graham Act on Russian crude buyers creates cross-currents for Indian energy and export companies.

Overweight: Aviation (potential relief in fuel costs), Logistics (reduced global freight disruptions), Paints (crude oil correction benefit)

Underweight: Textiles (vulnerable to US tariff exposure), Oil Marketing Companies (potential limits on discounted Russian crude)

Trigger Factors:

• Resolutions or joint statements from the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the UNGA.
• Any retaliatory actions or warnings from the US Department of State regarding Indian energy sourcing.
• A formal declaration of a bilateral energy infrastructure ceasefire.

Time Horizon: Near-term (0-3 months)

Industry Context

India's textile and MSME export sectors are highly sensitive to tariff changes, as the US remains India's largest export destination. Following the signing of the Lindsey O. Graham Act of 2026 on September 18, industry groups like the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) have urged the government to engage in diplomatic talks to insulate Indian exporters from potentially devastating 100% tariffs.

Key Risks to Watch

• High exposure of Indian exports to potential tariff penalties if energy ties with Russia are not successfully navigated under the new US framework.
• A breakdown in negotiations leading to renewed strikes on energy facilities, causing major hikes in global diesel and crude prices.
• Potential supply chain reallocations as Russia pivots its energy networks toward Africa in response to Asian tariff pressures.

Recent Developments

On September 18, 2026, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. On September 21, 2026, Trump urged Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries to stabilize the diesel market. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy arrived at the UNGA in New York on September 22, 2026, confirming that the 'peace track is our number one priority.'

Closing Insight

The dual tracks of aggressive trade policy and active diplomacy could reshape global energy corridors. While a peace deal remains the ultimate objective, the intermediate trade friction generated by Washington's tariff threats will require swift risk-management from Indian exporters and policymakers alike.

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