One MobiKwik Targets 10X Revenue Boost by FY28 as Lending Margins Stabilize at 4.5%

Market snapshot: One MobiKwik Systems Limited has unveiled a multi-year roadmap emphasizing merchant ecosystem expansion and sustainable credit margins. The company is pivoting towards offline payments to drive exponential revenue growth while navigating a tightening regulatory environment for digital lending.

Data Snapshot

• Revenue Target: 10X growth by FY2028 compared to current base.
• Lending Margin: Downward revision to 4.5% from 5.3% to ensure sustainability.
• Digital Credit GMV: Projected 30-35% growth in FY2027.
• EBITDA Margin: Target steady at ~5% for FY2026 and FY2027.
• Zaakpay (Gateway): 10X GMV target with EBITDA breakeven by FY28.

What's Changed

• Lending Margin Adjustment: Margin compressed from 5.3% to 4.5% as a preemptive move against regulatory tightening.
• Growth Engine Shift: Increased reliance on Offline Payments (5X target) and Zaakpay (10X target) relative to pure-play wallet services.
• Investment Cycle: Transitioning from capital-heavy merchant acquisition to revenue harvesting expected by FY27.

Key Takeaways

• Profitability focus remains intact with a 5% EBITDA margin floor despite investment phases.
• Regulatory compliance is being prioritized over high-yield lending spreads to ensure long-term stability.
• Merchant-side scaling via Zaakpay is the primary driver for reaching the 10X revenue milestone.

SAHI Perspective

MobiKwik's guidance suggests a pragmatic shift. By lowering lending margin expectations to 4.5%, management is de-risking the business model against RBI's tightening norms on unsecured credit. The 10X revenue target is aggressive but anchored in the 'Offline' and 'Gateway' segments, which typically offer higher stickiness than retail wallets. This diversification reduces dependency on the volatile credit-led profit model.

Market Implications

The strategy signals a maturing fintech sector where scale is sought through merchant integration rather than just consumer incentives. Competitors like PhonePe and Paytm will likely face similar margin pressures in lending, forcing a sector-wide pivot toward payment processing efficiency and merchant services.

Trading Signals

Market Bias: Neutral to Bullish

Management maintains a 5% EBITDA margin profile while targeting 30-35% GMV growth, indicating efficient scaling despite lower lending spreads of 4.5%.

Overweight: Digital Payments, Merchant Services

Underweight: High-Yield Unsecured Lending

Trigger Factors:

• RBI guidelines on digital lending risk weights
• Zaakpay EBITDA breakeven progress
• Quarterly Digital Credit GMV trajectory

Time Horizon: Medium-term (3-12 months)

Industry Context

The Indian fintech landscape is undergoing a structural shift. The RBI’s focus on sustainable lending practices is forcing platforms to re-evaluate their Net Interest Margins (NIMs). MobiKwik’s proactive reduction in margin targets reflects this industry-wide adjustment to safer, lower-yield credit products.

Key Risks to Watch

• Regulatory Risk: Further tightening of risk weights by RBI could impact Digital Credit GMV.
• Execution Risk: Achieving 10X GMV for Zaakpay in a highly competitive gateway market.
• Market Saturation: Slowdown in offline payment adoption among small merchants.

Recent Developments

MobiKwik has been aggressive in the soundbox and merchant QR space to challenge incumbents. In late 2025, the company strengthened its digital credit underwriting using AI-driven models to mitigate NPAs as lending volumes grew. Zaakpay received its final Payment Aggregator license earlier in the year, enabling this aggressive 10X roadmap.

Closing Insight

MobiKwik is attempting a difficult balancing act: scaling revenue by 10X while voluntarily capping lending margins. If they achieve the 5X offline growth, the merchant ecosystem will likely subsidize the tighter credit spreads, creating a more resilient financial institution.

FAQs

Why is MobiKwik reducing its lending margins to 4.5%?

The reduction from 5.3% to 4.5% is a strategic adjustment to comply with evolving regulatory landscapes and ensure the credit business remains sustainable and less susceptible to risk-weight changes.

What role does Zaakpay play in MobiKwik's FY28 vision?

Zaakpay is the gateway arm targeted for 10X GMV growth. It is expected to reach EBITDA breakeven by FY28, becoming a primary contributor to the group's 10X revenue goal.

How will the lower lending margins affect overall profitability?

Management expects to maintain a 5% EBITDA margin by offsetting lower lending spreads with high volume growth (30-35% in digital credit) and increased revenue from offline payments.

High Performance Trading with SAHI.