Jefferies Maintains 'Buy' on IndiGo: Target ₹6,140 Amid Summer Schedule Resilience

Market snapshot: InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) remains a structural leader in the Indian aviation sector, with Jefferies reaffirming a 'Buy' rating. The brokerage's outlook is anchored by the Summer 2026 schedule, which indicates a 6–7% YoY growth in domestic departures. While this capacity expansion supports a 10–11% growth in Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) for FY27, it marks a deceleration from the historical 13–15% trend, signaling emerging cost pressures and a more cautious growth trajectory.

Summary: Jefferies maintains a bullish stance on IndiGo with a TP of ₹6,140, despite leadership transitions and geopolitical headwinds in West Asia affecting international yields.

Key Takeaways

• Summer schedule 2026 confirms 6-7% YoY departure growth, reinforcing confidence in FY27 capacity targets.
• Cost per Available Seat Kilometre (CASK) pressure is rising due to fuel inflation and rerouting requirements.
• Earnings visibility is currently constrained by the prolonged West Asia crisis impacting high-yield Gulf routes.

SAHI Perspective

IndiGo’s ability to maintain a 64% domestic market share while navigating the sudden exit of CEO Pieter Elbers on March 10, 2026, showcases institutional resilience. However, the 'double squeeze' of rising ATF prices (up 6% in March) and international flight cancellations (over 500 in early March) remains a significant near-term headwind for bottom-line expansion.

Closing Insight

IndiGo remains the most efficient scale play in Indian aviation. While macro-shocks test short-term margins, its dominant position and premiumization strategy provide a long-term moat.

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