Indian Hotels Co. Resilient Amid Global Volatility: Nomura Reaffirms Buy with ₹800 Target

Market snapshot: The Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL) continues to demonstrate operational resilience despite shifting global geopolitical dynamics. Global brokerage Nomura has maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock, albeit with a revised target price of ₹800 (from ₹830). The revision accounts for recent market corrections and a minor adjustment in near-term projections, yet the fundamental outlook remains underpinned by strong luxury and corporate travel demand.

Summary: Nomura maintains a 'Buy' on IHCL with a ₹800 target price, projecting a 13-14% EBITDA CAGR through FY28. While Q4FY26 growth estimates were slightly moderated due to geopolitical tensions, demand tailwinds from luxury travel and major domestic events provide a solid cushion.

Key Takeaways

• Moderate Q4 Growth: Q4FY26 revenue and EBITDA growth are projected at 11% and 12% YoY, respectively, reflecting a slight moderation from earlier high-growth phases.
• Structural EBITDA Growth: The company is forecast to maintain a healthy EBITDA CAGR of 13-14% for the FY26-28 period, driven by asset-light expansion.
• Resilient Domestic Demand: Strong bookings from domestic corporate events and international sports events like the ICC World Cup have offset minor cancellations linked to global tensions.

SAHI Perspective

IHCL's transition from a high-growth phase to a 'stabilized growth' trajectory is evident. At a valuation of approximately 22x FY28 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers a reasonable entry point. The shift toward management-heavy contracts (asset-light) continues to improve return on capital employed (ROCE), making it a premium defensive play in the discretionary segment.

Closing Insight

While geopolitical headlines may cause short-term price volatility, IHCL’s robust pipeline and 'Accelerate 2030' strategy ensure long-term value creation.

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