India Consumer Durables: Macquarie Forecasts 15% Growth Surge Amidst Commodity Headwinds

Market snapshot: The Indian consumer durables sector is poised for a structural upturn, with Macquarie projecting over 15% volume growth in the Cables and Wires (C&W) segment for Q4. Despite the looming shadow of commodity inflation in copper and aluminium, aggressive price hikes of 10–15% are serving as a buffer for top-tier manufacturers. Analysts anticipate that sustained cooling demand and infrastructure tailwinds will maintain a 15% growth trajectory into FY27, though margin compression remains a tactical risk.

Summary: Macquarie maintains an optimistic outlook on India's durables sector, specifically favoring the Cables & Wires segment with 15%+ volume growth. While inflation in raw materials poses risks, price adjustments and cooling demand are expected to drive double-digit growth through FY27.

Key Takeaways

• Projected 15%+ volume growth in C&W segment for Q4, backed by infrastructure demand.
• FY27 growth forecast remains robust at 15%+, driven by the cooling solutions and electronics segments.
• Top picks include Polycab, Havells, and Crompton Greaves with 'Outperform' ratings; Voltas remains 'Neutral' due to competitive margin pressure.
• Commodity inflation is being mitigated by industry-wide price hikes of 10–15%.

SAHI Perspective

SAHI identifies a clear divergence in the sector: while C&W players like Polycab benefit from the ₹12.2 lakh crore public capex announced in Budget 2026, cooling-focused firms like Voltas are navigating a transition period marked by BEE energy norm changes and high input costs. The ability to sustain the 10-15% price hikes without dampening demand will be the critical alpha-generator for these stocks in the coming quarters.

Closing Insight

Investors should pivot towards high-moat players in the C&W segment who possess the pricing power to navigate commodity cycles while capitalizing on India's long-term infrastructure expansion.

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